Free Monte Carlo Trading Simulator
A free Monte Carlo trading simulator with no login. Set a win rate, average win and loss in R, risk per trade and number of trades, and it runs many randomised scenarios in your browser to show a range of possible equity curves, ending balances and drawdowns. These are simulations based purely on your inputs and assumptions — a range of mathematical scenarios that do not predict future results, forecast profits or guarantee outcomes.
Inputs
1–2000 per simulation.
Percent of current balance.
Reward in R multiples on a win.
Loss in R multiples on a loss.
1–5000 randomised runs.
Sample equity paths (1000 simulations · 100 trades)
Ending balance — scenario range
Median
$14,026
Best run
$21,949
Worst run
$8,700
5th–95th percentile
$11,046 – $17,810
Median max drawdown
7.7%
Chance of ending below start
0.7%
Max-drawdown distribution
Chance of reaching this drawdown
0.0%
How it works
Each simulated trade risks a percentage of the current balance. A win adds risk × average-win-R; a loss subtracts risk × average-loss-R. Whether a trade wins is drawn at random against your win rate.
Repeating this for many independent runs produces a distribution of equity curves. The simulator summarises that distribution — median and extreme outcomes, max-drawdown spread and the probability of ending below the start — so you can see the range of scenarios, not a single prediction.
Example calculation
- Start $10,000 · 100 trades · risk 1% · win rate 45% · win 2R · loss 1R · 1,000 simulations.
- The chart shows sample equity paths; the cards show median, best and worst ending balances.
- Outcomes vary every run — this is a scenario range, not a forecast.
Frequently asked
What does the Monte Carlo simulator show?
It runs many randomised sequences of trades from the same statistics (win rate, R multiples, risk per trade) and shows the spread of possible outcomes in this scenario — median, best and worst ending balance, drawdown distribution and the share of runs finishing below your starting balance.
Does it predict how much I will make?
No. It is a scenario simulation based purely on the inputs you enter. Real trading varies and outcomes are never guaranteed; the tool deliberately shows a range, not a forecast.
Does it run on a server or store my inputs?
Neither. The simulation runs entirely in your browser and nothing is stored. You can set a seed for reproducible runs.
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Want to track this automatically from your MetaTrader account?
NuvoraSync is a read-only MetaTrader journal and analytics workspace. Connect MT4 or MT5 once and your trades, drawdown and performance update on their own — no manual entry.
This free tool is for educational and analytical purposes only. It does not provide trading signals, investment advice, financial recommendations, broker services or trade execution. Calculations are estimates based on the values you enter; simulations show scenario ranges only and do not predict future results or guarantee any outcome.